That's more to my initial point. There might be a purely sporting rivalry between Germany-Netherlands, and as you say a healthy one, but it's not really a proper rivalry. Countries tend to root against England for very different reasons.
Southgate has struggled to get past top 10 sides since taking over in 2016 so it's not just this tournament Denmark were ranked 10th in 2021 while Germany was ranked 12th those were by far his biggest wins. His win percentage record against top 10 sides in all matches qualifiers nations league tournaments is 27%. This is greatly helped by beating Italy twice in qualifying when they were going through a mess with Mancini quitting and half the team being injured. For comparison Hodgson had a 50% record. These stats can be somewhat misleading upon close examination but the reality is that Southgate has mostly gotten his results by beating teams he should be beating. Beating the Netherlands will be by far his biggest scalp.
The weather gods are joining the party.....we have Code Orange in the start of the evening with probably hailstones up to 4 cm.
We beat Italy home and away in qualifying though. Really, surely Croatia at Euro 2020 would be that? They may not have had the highest ranking at that time but they were World Cup finalists in 2018 and semi finalists 2022, a much better tournament form team at that time than Holland currently are. That said beating Germany was massive because they dumped us ot of World Cup 1990 semi, Euro 96 semi and World Cup 2010 R16.
And who have the Netherlands beaten en route to the semis? Poland, Romania, and Turkey. They were gifted that run after doing next to nothing to earn it in the groups, but you don't hear so much about that, do you? Typically, you get an easier route by beating the teams you "should" be beating, and an even easier one if other big nations fail to beat the sides they "should" be beating. That isn't luck; it's how the tournaments are set up. Doing what the Netherlands did in their group - losing to Austria, scraping through in third place - and still getting that kind of run, now that's luck...
I might be wrong, but I thought the rivalry for many years was based on a very real Dutch antipathy based on WW2, with this naturally having diminished over the years as the wartime generation dwindle. Certainly is the case in England. I remember Euro 96 as the first tournament I watched and there were definitely some people who actually hated the Germans, rather than just viewing it as a sporting rivalry.
Netherlands have massive question marks around them and have for years n doubt about it. If they were to beat England and then Spain/France it would be somewhat surprising. You have to go back to 2010 where they beat Brazil and Uruguay to find where they last had a significant win over a top side. The other results that were good since then were their draws with Argentina in 2018 and 2022 both which were lost in shootouts. The two nations are in similar situation where it's hard to know if either can get over the line and come out on top and be the last standing of the final four not just because of history but recent results or lack there of against top sides. France and Spain would both be favourites in that sense but again let's see how the final looks after these two matches. We should learn a lot about who is a real contender. I don't think England have been lucky as much as they have been hard to beat which is a massive positive for them. Can the Netherlands be the ones to do it? For me the Swiss play better football but Netherlands have the individual quality to finish off the movements the Swiss could not but then again England have the quality to break Netherlands in a way that Turkey could not. I think England will win and play their best match but that's based on vibes.
You're showing your hand a bit here. I don't think anyone would deny Southgate's record against top teams is largely poor, but it does stray into the ridiciulous when people start trying to tear apart even the wins he does have. No, half the Italy team was not injured. Spalleti was meant to be one of tactical masters who'd show Southgate for what he is. Lets not change track now. It largely warrants any discussion meaningless because its either in bad faith or blinded by bias so any team England do defeat just gets excused pointlessly. Which you could do for I think a good deal of teams anyway.
yes but it was a group stage match. bye that same token we can mention how Belgium beat England in the group stage so still Southgate's record against top sides is not favourable overall. win against Germany was massive no doubt about it. the results are the results they are certainly not bad we are speaking about a nation and manager that has done well the last 8 years relatively speaking. when we highlight his flaws it is not to say he is lucky or take anything away but to point out the gap that still exists between him and the final hurdle. that can all change over the next two matches if not maybe the next manager will make him look silly by dominating with this group maybe not we don't know. If there is a question mark around whether Southgate ball works and is just ugly or whether it actually does not work his lack of results against the top sides is the easiest thing to point to for his critics. that's where they can say see it works until it doesn't.
Losing that match was a huge advantage for England, because that gave England the easiest route. It was well done by Southgate to "find" that loss ... They also lost the bronze final to Belgium, but that match matters no more than a friendly.
Who remembers the Dutch banner in the crowd from the other year. "u neemt onze fietsen niet mee!" "You will not take our bicycles!"
Ba-dum-tss! He's here all week. To paraphrase Billy Connolly: “You should get an agent pal, why sit at your computer handling yourself?”.
Gareth Southgate on Luke Shaw. “He made a good contribution to the game (v Swiss). We have to make a decision whether to start (him #NEDENG). He gives a different balance to the team." Adds, "Kieran (Trippier) has been so important on so many big nights for us.” #ENG #EURO2024— Henry Winter (@henrywinter) July 9, 2024
It's funny to hear some foreign fans still coming out and calling the team "overrated". Our players have literally come out and complained about how much criticism they're receiving in England, who exactly is overrating us?
Greece 2004 beat France's golden generation 1-0 in 90 minutes and did the same to Portugal's golden generation not once but twice just to demonstrate that its as not luck. They did not concede once in the knockouts and won every game within 90 minutes. When people point to Greece 2004 or Portugal 2016 or Denmark 1992 saying you can play poorly and win on luck they are really generalizing the performances to such a degree that the take becomes not only a reach but a lie. I think it's an odd take to bring down past performances to give belief that a team one supports can finish the job even if they don't play well. It's almost a bargaining. It's just as bad as putting down opposition pre tournament as was done with Spain and Germany. Putting down past Champions is not the way. England can just be the better team over the next two games that's a much better place to be and it's far more likely that they will lift the cup if they do so. We already have seen that they are hard to beat in 90 minutes so that can certainly find that gear on the other end of the pitch and they will likely have to in order to become European Champions.
Yes Italy was missing 6-7 players in qualifying due to injury suspension and Spalletti had just taken over in a huge controversy after Mancini quit mid qualifying. This is not to say Italy would have beaten England as we saw at this Euros even now Spalletti has still not figured out what he is doing after 10 matches in charge or so and italy are a mess and a level below this England no doubt. If anything I am putting Italy down here as they were only a top 10 team in name this past year and a half. Swiss beat them comfortably. Anyone could as they are. When we look at Southgate vs Italy before Mancini quit the record was even 1-1 euro final pk Italy 0-0 Nations League 1-0 Italy win nations league and 2-1 England win qualifiers. The point is not to take away from what Southgate has done it's just that in knockouts his record against top sides is poor and even the few wins against top sides he has in groups or qualifiers or friendlies are not hugely impressive when we look closely at them. This is not picking on England/Southgate. Since 2018 Argentina France Spain Italy Croatia Portugal even Belgium have multiple big wins against top sides in knockout matches. Like you said his record is generally poor against the best sides in knockouts it is very poor. Denmark and Germany are by far the biggest scalps he has achieved in 8 years when it really counts. The reason why it's relevant is because there is a cognitive dissonance around people that say the talent is bailing him out and those that say he's the greatest England manager ever because of 3 semi finals out of 4. When we look at it closely we can see that his results are actually not outliers for England. example 2012 England miss the semi final on a shoot out. 2024 England make the semi final on a shoot out 2006 England miss the semi final on a shootout 2018 England beat Columbia on a shootout and then beat Sweden to reach a semi final Euro 2004 England miss the semi final on a shoot out 2002 miss the semi final losing 2-1 to eventual winners Brazil Euro 2020 make the semi final smashing Ukraine 4-0 1996 miss semi final on a shoot out Euro 2021 make final beating Denmark 1990 world cup miss final on a shootout so you see the results are actually very similar outside 2 shoot out wins for Southgate and 5 shootout losses for previous managers and some favourable opponents for Southgate and some unfavourable opponents for past mangers at the quarters. This is not to put down Southgate it is to give credit to England of the past who were always in and around semi finals and finals and missed out on very thin margins or simply lost to teams that were ready to win the whole thing. As it stands he's basically performing as a standard England manager. If he can make a second final and win in regulation time tomorrow he deserves credit for doing something unique. otherwise it's not as impressive as it seems. and this is why people that critique him as holding this very talented group back up until this point at least have something of a point. I don't even agree with this all that much or at least I really don't know where I stand because I think results are results but again the results are practically the same as past England teams on closer inspection.
That's the usual excuse when we beat a big team. 'Germany are not the team of old' or 'Italy were in transition '