Israel is in Group A2 with Italy, Belgium, and France. Israel's FIFA Ranking of 78th is so much worse than Italy in 10th, France in 2nd, and Belgium in 6th. Teams play two games this month, two in October, and two in November. Israel cannot host, and their "home" games will be in Hungary. Because of protests over the war between Israel and Hamas, Belgium was not allowed to host Israel, and today's game was in Hungary. Italy and France will be allowed to host Israel. Belgium won 3-1, and Israel's only goal was an own goal by Belgium. Belgium dominated statistics including expected goals (xG) 3.13 to 0.38, shots 26 to 9, shots on goal 9 to 2, completed passes 568 to 298, attacks 146 to 58, and dangerous attacks 97 to 22. https://www.flashscore.com/match/WCWmVTl4/#/match-summary/match-statistics/0 is my source. In today's other game, Italy won 3-1 at France. Israel and France have the same amount of points, goal differential, and goals scored, and Israel is ranked above first because Israel has an away goal (which was at a neutral site), and France has only hosted, so they cannot have an away goal. The tiebreakers through one game do not matter, and I would not be surprised if Israel loses all six games. The top two in each group go to the Quarterfinals, third place teams go to promotion-relegation playoffs against League B second place teams, and fourth place teams are relegated to League B. Here is the schedule for Israel's group: 9 September: France vs. Belgium, and Israel vs. Italy in Budapest, Hungary 10 October: Israel vs. France in Budapest, Hungary, and Italy vs. Belgium 14 October: Belgium vs. France, and Italy vs. Israel 14 November: Belgium vs. Italy, and France vs. Israel 17 November: Israel vs. Belgium in Budapest, Hungary, and Italy vs. France
Israel 1-2 Italy (in Hungary) While down 2-0, Mohammed Abu Fani scored in the 90th to avoid getting shut out. Italy had big advantages in expected goals (1.56 to 0.46), shots (12 to 5), and shots on goal (6 to 2), while some other statistics were close. In the other game, France won 2-0 hosting Belgium, so Israel is the only winless team, and it could finish that way. The standings are: Italy: 6 points, +3 France: 3 points, +0, has head-to-head tiebreaker over Belgium Belgium: 3 points, +0 Israel: 0 points, -3 The next games are on 10 October.
Israel 1-4 France (in Budapest, Hungary) France had more shots, 15 to 1. It was 1-2 until France scored in the 87th and 89th. The group's other game was Italy 2-2 Belgium. Italy has 7 points, France has 6, Belgium has 4, and Israel has 0 through 3 of 6 games. On Monday 14 October, Israel is at Italy, and Belgium hosts France.
Italy 4-1 Israel Mateo Retegui (who I liked last season because he played for Genoa that I like) scored a penalty kick in the 41st, Giovanni Di Lorenzo scored in the 54th, Mohammad Abu Fani scored Israel's only goal in the 66th, Davide Frattesi scored in the 72nd, and Di Lorenzo scored his second goal in the 79th. Di Lorenzo is a defender. Italy dominated statistics with 76.8 percent of expected goals (2.38 to 0.72), 68 percent of possession, 73.9 percent of shots (17 to 6), 80 percent of shots on goal (8 to 2), a higher percent of shots that were on goal (8/17 = 47.1 percent to 2/6 = 33.3 percent), 63.6 percent of the combined corner kicks and free kicks (21 to 12), 68.3 percent of total passes (611 to 284), 71.2 percent of completed passes (561 to 227), a higher pass completion percentage (561/611 = 91.8 percent to 227/284 = 79.9 percent), 55.6 percent of throw-ins (15 to 12), and 70 percent of the interception (7 to 3). Each team committed 10 fouls, and Italy got the only yellow card. Israel had the only offside. Italy had the only 7 crosses completed. Both teams scored with half of their shots on goal. The odds had Italy as giant favorites and ten times as likely to win as Israel was. Israel lost all four games, and their two 4-1 margins this month were worse than their margins last month. Italy has 10 points and +6, France has 9 points and +4, Belgium has 4 points and -1, and Israel has 0 points and -9. Italy is in first, but they have the disadvantage that they are done playing Israel, and France and Belgium play Israel in November. On Matchday 5, France hosts Israel, and Belgium hosts Italy. Israel must get more points than Belgium to not be relegated to League B that day. On Matchday 6, Israel plays Belgium in Budapest, Hungary, and Italy hosts France. The games are on 14 November and 17 November. Israel allowed 13 goals. Of the other 15 teams in League A, the most goals allowed is 9 by Bosnia and Herzegovina, but half of the teams play their fourth game tomorrow. That includes Poland (6 goals allowed) hosting Scotland (7 goals allowed) and Switzerland (8 goals allowed) hosting Serbia.
France 0-0 Israel The odds made probabilities of 84.4 percent for France winning, 10.0 percent for a draw, and 5.6 percent for Israel winning. France dominated statistics, but they did not score. France had 97.5 percent of expected goals (2.31 to 0.06), 70 percent of possession, 88.9 percent of shots (24 to 3), 88.9 percent of shots on goal (8 to 1), 100 percent of corner kicks (8 to 0), 69.6 percent of total passes (743 to 325), 73.1 percent of completed passes (672 to 247), and a higher pass completion percentage (672/743 = 90.4 percent to 247/325 = exactly 76 percent). Each team had 9 fouls and 9 free kicks. Israel got 2 yellow cards, and France got 1. Israel Sagiv Jehezkel and a French player are suspended for their next game. There were no red cards or penalty kicks. France had better statistics in the second half than in the first half with 73 percent of possession and 78.1 percent of completed passes. Flash Score gave man of the match to goalkeeper Daniel Peretz. Flash Score says that Coach Didier Deschamps chose not to use Kylian Mbappe this month. Israel guaranteed that none of the sixteen teams in League A will end without a point. Israel will avoid relegation in the very likely event that they beat Belgium by at least 3 goals. Belgium 0-1 Italy gave Italy a 3 point lead. Israel gained 19 ELO points from the win. To show how much weaker than France, Belgium, and Italy they are, that was as many points as Israel lost from their first four losses combined, meaning that 1 point from 5 games met ELO's expectations, albeit ELO includes margin of victory, so Israel could have had 1 point now with more or fewer ELO points. https://www.eloratings.net/Israel is Israel's ELO page, and they are 69th. France is 4th, Italy is 9th, and Belgium is 13th. After the Nations League ends on Sunday, the next event will be the World Cup Qualifying draw on 13 December.
Israel 1-0 Belgium (in Budapest, Hungary) Israel got an impressive win to finish with 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses, 4 points, and a -8 goal differential. Belgium won 3-1 hosting Israel and finished above Israel on head-to-head goal differential. Belgium dominated possession with 70 percent, but Israel had the same amount of shots on goal with 4, and more expected goals 0.85 to 0.83. The game was scoreless until Yarden Shua scored in the 86th. Flash Score gave man of the match to Israel's Mahmoud Jaber. France won 3-1 at Italy to tie Italy with 13 points, and made both head-to-head games be 3-1 away wins. France won the group with a +6 goal differential to Italy's +5. Portugal, France, Germany, and Spain won League A's groups.