BigSoccer IN SPACE!!! (The BigSoccer Space Exploration Thread)

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SpaceX has decided to take their time launching Polaris Dawn, and have delayed it to early Friday morning, again at 3:38am EDT.

Instead, they launched a set of Starlink satellites from Pad 40 early this morning.

The launch operations went well. But after landing, the booster, B1062.23, toppled on the droneship A Shortfall of Gravitas.

The coming Galileo launch was moved to B1067.22, which will now be expended with that launch.

There is at least one known Falcon 9 first stage in testing, B1088. B1087 and B1089 have not been publicly revealed yet, while B1090 is the core that will be used for Europa Clipper in October, and B1086 will be a side booster for the GOES-U launch.

 

Jared Isaacman with some wisdom about Polaris Dawn's recent delays.

I wanted to share some updates:

- The primary factor driving the launch timing for Polaris Dawn is the splashdown weather within Dragon's limits. Unlike an ISS mission, we don’t have the option to delay long on orbit, so we must ensure the forecast is as favorable as possible… pic.twitter.com/3cKEjjVqvC

— Jared Isaacman (@rookisaacman) August 29, 2024

The issue with the helium leak in the ground equipment appear to be beaten, but now the weather has become an issue. Particularly, predictions in weather at recovery areas for the end of the mission.

Currently, the mission is on for Sunday with the same set of launch windows, opening at 3:38am EDT.

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SpaceX Crew-9 is currently scheduled for September 24 at 2:30pm EDT.

Of course, that's pending whether or not they can actually get Calypso undocked. Currently, its undocking is planned for next Friday at approximately 6:04pm EDT.

Also, there is again uncertainty on who will accompany Aleksandr Gorbunov on the flight. Some in the Astronaut Office want to replace the original commander, Zena Cardman, with Nick Hague due to the reduced crew and unique circumstances.

What happens with Calypso in the end doesn't really matter without the crew. The question is always going to be with whether or not the service module can get it away from the International Space Station and de-orbited.

I'm sure Boeing won't be happy if it makes it back to White Sands safely. But no one wants more problems with it, or worse.

 

So... this past weekend, weird noises were coming from Calypso.

#NASA solves 'strange noises' heard on Boeing Starliner: Here's what it washttps://t.co/hHzm6JuKnu

— Jörg (@jm3107) September 2, 2024

Barry Wilmore reported, and transmitted, a sound coming from Calypso's speaker system.

NASA analyzed it, and on Sunday reported that it was feedback from its audio loop with the International Space Station.

The current plan for Calypso is for it to undock from Harmony forward Friday evening at 6:04pm EDT. It will pull away, and instead of the normal sprial out of the keep-away sphere, it will conduct a posigrade maneuver to go above and behind the ISS.

A few hours later, it will de-orbit. Presuming the propulsion system in the service module holds up, landing at White Sands is scheduled for early Saturday morning 2:03am EDT.

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Polaris Dawn is currently planned to launch Wednesday morning at 3:38am EDT. This gives it the best window for its splashdown and recovery.

Meanwhile, the second pair of Galileo navsats scheduled for launch atop Falcon 9 is currently penciled in for September 9. It can go any time it's safe since the first stage, Booster B1067.23, is being expended.

 

The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.

These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.

Flight rate will… https://t.co/ZuiM00dpe9

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 7, 2024

Elon Musk has some big plans for Starship.

He is planning to launch two Starships to Mars during the 2026 Hohmann transfer window. Both will undergo the "seven minutes of terror"—the official NASA terminology for atmospheric entry on Mars—and try to soft land on the red planet.

If either of those landings succeeds, then he will send humans to Mars during the 2028 Hohmann transfer window.

It is uncertain if they will attempt a crewed landing with the first human missions. That would be an ultra high-risk mission. And no guarantee yet on how, or if, they would return.

The ultimate goal is a self-sustaining city on Mars in as little as 20 years.

Of course, another question is getting Starship ready as the Human Launch System for the Artemis 3 mission. Developments have continued in parallel with the normal Starships we've seen launched. The elevator system was tested with astronauts last December. Earlier this year, SpaceX completed validation for its life support system.

Issues with Lockheed Martin and Boeing are buying SpaceX time in that aspect. As it stands, the absolute earliest that Artemis 2 will fly is September 2025. And considering how Artemis 1 developed, that is far from certain.

Recently, Lockheed Martin disclosed concerns about the ablation patterns on the Orion spacecraft from translunar atmospheric entry at the end of Artemis 1. These were patterns similar to those found on Apollo command modules after similar returns. But they determined that they could do better, so they re-evaluated the ablative heat shield so it would be hardier on return; especially since they are intending to re-use Orion spacecraft.

As it stands, the debut of the HLS variant of Starship is planned for next year. It's unknown how many tests SpaceX will need to perfect it for Artemis 3, which currently isn't planned to fly until 2027 at the earliest.

It would be embarrassing for NASA if SpaceX got humans to Mars and back before they return to the Moon.

SpaceX is also working on a cargo variant of the Starship HLS, which is expected to be used with Artemis 7.

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Speaking of Boeing...

BREAKING
Starliner Is Back On Earth!
NASA and Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft Calypso has landed at New Mexico's White Sands Space Harbor. Crews will now make safe and inspect the vehicle. @NASA @BoeingSpace #Starliner pic.twitter.com/0qgtR5WaSV

— John Cremeans USA (@JohnCremeansUSA) September 7, 2024

Calypso safely landed at White Sands Missile Range early this morning at 4:01am EDT.

 

As to be expected, Calypso's return was not without issue, either.

Only this time, there was actually something wrong with Calypso. Which probably wasn't unexpected, considering it was in orbit three months longer than expected.

There was a brief glitch in the navigational system, and one of the RCS thrusters failed. The latter had redundant systems to make up for the outage.

Boeing backed out of participating in the post-landing press conference with NASA.

 

Early this morning, Polaris Dawn finally launched aboard Crew Dragon Resilience.

After passing up the initial 3:38am EDT launch window, SpaceX saw an opening with the second launch window, and launched at 5:23am EDT.

Its initial orbit has an apogee of 1,200 km. It will also have a perigee of 190 km, with an orbit specifically crafted to pass through the South Atlantic anomaly, the lowest portion of the Van Allen radiation belts.

The apogee will soon be raised to 1,400 km, reaching the highest Earth-bound orbit ever achieved by a crewed spacecraft. On Day 2, apogee will be lowered, and Resilience will be brought to a 750km circular orbit.

It is calculated that the astronauts will receive an equivalent radiation dose of three months aboard the International Space Station during this mission.

The environment aboard Resilience is being adjusted. Slowly, the pressure is being lowered, nitrogen is being scrubbed out, and oxygen is being increased. Eventually, the atmosphere inside the spacecraft will be 350 hPa of pure oxygen.

The gradual change is part of the prebreathing protocol prior to the planned EVA. After the EVA on Thursday, the atmosphere inside will be returned to a more Earth-like atmosphere.

 

Dragon and the Polaris Dawn crew have completed six orbits of Earth at ~1,400 km. Over the next five hours, Dragon will perform four burns to lower itself to an orbit of ~190 x 742 km in preparation for Thursday’s spacewalk

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 11, 2024

Polaris Dawn completed six orbits with an apogee of 1,400.7 km. Over the next three orbits, it will gradually lower its apogee to around 750 km in preparation for the EVA tomorrow.

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Meanwhile, the next mission to the International Space Station, Soyuz MS-26, will launch this afternoon 12:22pm EDT from Site 31/6, Baikonur Cosmodrome. And another set of Starlink satellites will launch at 9pm EDT from Pad 4E, Vandenberg.

Two more launches are set for Pad 40, Cape Canaveral, this week. Tomorrow morning at 4:52am EDT will be five BlueBird comsats for AST SpaceMobile. And the second Galileo launch for the European Union is penned in for Sunday evening at 6:57pm EDT.

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With Calypso back on Earth relatively safe, SpaceX Crew-9 is finally settled for NET September 24 at 2:30pm EDT. It will be the first crewed launch from Pad 40, Cape Canaveral.

Crew-9 was originally planned to launch from Pad 39A, but the delays caused by Starliner Crewed Flight Test 1 pushed it too close to preparations for Europa Clipper. So they decided to get started earlier on crewed use of Pad 40, a transition that was already in the cards as work continued on the Starship Orbital Launch Mount at Pad 39A.

The crew of SpaceX Crew-10 was announced recently. Taking command will be Anne McClain, with pilot Nichole Ayers, as well as Japanese astronaut Takuya Onishi and Russian cosmonaut Kirill Peskov.

This will make McClain the first open lesbian in space, and the first openly LGBT+ astronaut in orbit. This is because she was outed by a misconduct allegation made by her ex-wife, who claimed she tried to hack her financial records during her last tenure aboard the ISS in 2019 while they were in divorce proceedings.

The allegation was ultimately disproven, or we wouldn't be at this point. Her ex-wife, Summer Worden, was indicted for making false statements in April 2020.

With Boeing not being added to the rotation now, SpaceX Crew-10 is currently penciled in for February 2025.

 

The EVA program for Polaris Dawn began at 6:12am EDT with the depressurization of Crew Dragon Resilience.

Jared Isaacman exited the top hatch first and did a series of mobility tests for the SpaceX EVA suit, taking environmental readings for within the suit. He then returned inside, and Sarah Gillis came out and repeared the mobility tests.



The EVAs were of the stand-up variety, where they didn't completely exit the spacecraft. But it is still the first time four humans have been in spacesuits in a vacuum in space at the same time.

The entire operation ended at 7:58am EDT when Resilience finished repressurizing and leak checks were completed.

Isaacman has already said that another EVA will be done with the second Polaris mission. There are rumors that it might involve a visit to the Hubble Space Telescope, and potentially even giving it a reboost for future servicing. Though I doubt any serious work would be done on Hubble during that mission. That would probably require a Starship mission.

 

The Great Red Spot of Jupiter is one of the most notable features of any planet in our Solar System. It has been discerned as early as 1665 by Giovanni Cassini. At that point, it was known as the "permanent spot".

It has been under constant observation since the 1880s, when the term "Great Red Spot" started to become popular. For a long time, scientists have been wondering just how long the spot has persisted.

This is especially the case since the 1990s, as observable degradation has been taking place, with the spot shrinking and fading in color.

But recent research may suggest that the Great Dark Spot might be newer than people realize.

A 2024 study of historic observations of Jupiter found no observations of a red spot at all from roughly 1713 to 1831. This implies that the "permanent spot" and the "Great Red Spot" might have been different storm systems.

Another note is that, prior to the 1800s, the spot was usually observed in the Northern Hemisphere of Jupiter, not the Southern Hemisphere. This may not be a correlation, as it was discovered that telescopes prior to the mid-19th century were actually inverting what they were viewing. So we were looking at the universe upside-down.

Ironically, Galileo's original telescopes did not do this. Inversion was a side effect of improved refracting telescopes. It was only later that technology was added to correct the inversion. And, of course, space probes would eventually confirm which direction was truly "up".

 

65 years ago today, Vanguard 3C was launched atop a Vanguard rocket from Pad 18A, Cape Canaveral.

Yes, this was the third attempt to launch Vanguard 3.

The rocket was originally intended to be Vanguard TV4BU, the backup to the fourth Vanguard rocket test vehicle; the one that conducted the first successful launch, Vanguard 1. Desperate to try to get a third Vanguard satellite in orbit, they upgraded TV4BU to the production specifications.

Placed in a 3,400x500-km orbit, it's been estimated it will remain in orbit for another 250 years. Presuming it's not removed by debris control before then.

The battery-powered satellite operated for just under 3 months. It remained attached to the third stage of the rocket.

 

SpaceX Crew-9 is now set to launch next Thursday at 2:05pm EDT from Pad 40, Cape Canaveral.



They finally got around to updating the crew photo, and at least photoshopped all the names off the mission patch on the photo.

It is not known yet what they will do with Zena Cardman or Stephanie Wilson. I myself have speculated that at least Wilson could simply be put on Artemis 3. But we will likely get a first glimpse when they set the crew for SpaceX Crew-11.

Speaking of that, Crew-10 is going to be flying a brand new Crew Dragon spacecraft, C213. The crew will get to name the spacecraft, and we will likely find out its name in January.

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As for the issues with Starliner CFT-1, it turns out the engine issues were not new. They were experienced in OFT-2 as well.

What NASA thinks was happening is the O-rings in the oxidizer lines were expanding with use more than Boeing anticipated, resulting in the computer reading lower-than-expected thrust and erroring into a shutdown. The problem is, they could not replicate the issue during their hot-fire testing while docked at the International Space Station.

Unable to replicate the issue, NASA did not feel comfortable returning Barry Wilmore and Sunita Williams aboard Calypso in case the issues cropped up again and worsened.

Of course, Calypso did ultimately return safely, but with yet more issues manifesting on the way back.

Starliner-1 is still officially set for August 2025. But it's far from certain that mission will end up happening at all, much less by the end of next year.

With Jonny Kim set for the next Soyuz mission, Soyuz MS-27, which will coincide with SpaceX Crew-10, this will leave Cardman as the only member of Astronaut Group 22 who has not gone to space yet.

One last thing: Sunita Williams will take over as commander of Expedition 72 when Soyuz MS-25 leaves on Monday.

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Meanwhile, the next Vulcan rocket, which should've been the debut flight of Dream Chaser, is currently penned in for Friday, October 4 at 6am EDT.

 

Developmental delays in the New Glenn rocket have caused NASA to delay EscaPADE to Q2 2025.

Seems like an odd time to launch probes to Mars. The current plan is for the trip to take 11 months.

Now, the debut launch for New Glenn is penciled in for November, and will carry a prototype for Blue Origin's Blue Ring spacecraft platform.

Blue Ring is essentially a space tug, which they are advertising as capable of launching spacecraft on a variety of trajectories. Potentially even to interstellar space.

While it will debut on New Glenn, Blue Ring is being planned to be carrier-agnostic, and can potentially be used on any EELV-certified rocket. So it could fly on Atlas V, Falcon 9, or Vulcan in the future.

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With ISRO still hoping to launch the first uncrewed orbital flight of Gaganyaan by the end of the year, some of their future plans are coming to light.

They are not content on sitting on their laurels while the People's Republic of China runs its own station.



This is Bharatiya Antariksha Station, India's planned future space station.

The current plan is to launch the core of BAS atop an LVM3 rocket as soon as 2028. Future modules will be launched by a new heavy-lift vehicle, currently called the Next Generation Launch Vehicle (NGLV), some time in the 2030s.

The BAS and Gaganyaan will use the International Docking System Standard for rendezvous and docking. To test this, ISRO is planning at least one mission for Gaganyaan to dock with the International Space Station as soon as 2028.

Whether that docking is to the ISS itself or the Axiom segment is immaterial.



Previously known as the Unified Launch Vehicle, the original idea was a common set of medium-to-heavy lift carrier rockets. The idea on the far right was the ultimate choice.

The base of the rocket will be two huge SRBs strapped to a methalox core stage, with potential future reusability. It will have a capacity up to 70,000 kg to LEO, or 22,500 kg to TLI.

 

16 years ago today, Shenzhou 7 was launched atop a Long March 2F rocket from Pad 4, Jiuquan Space Center.



It would be CNSA's first crew of three, filling the intended capacity of the Shenzhou spacecraft. The crew consisted of Shenzhou 5 backup Zhai Zhigang, and Shenzhou 6 backups Liu Buoming and Jing Haipeng.

Zhai would be mission commander, while Liu was "monitor taikonaut" for the orbital module, and Jing was that for the descent module.



The primary task of the mission was the People's Republic of China's first extravehicular activity. While Jing remained in the pressurized descent module, Zhai and Liu would enter the orbital module. Liu would be wearing a borrowed Russian Orlan-M spacesuit, while Zhai would be wearing a CNSA-developed Feitian spacesuit.

Once the orbital module was depressurized, Zhai would exit the top hatch, and work around the spacecraft for 22 minutes. After the spacewalk, the orbital module was repressurized, and the spacesuits were left in the orbital module for later disposal. Only the gloves of the Feitian suit were saved.

The mission lasted three days. The orbital module was separated prior to de-orbit burn, and remained in orbit for a month after the mission. The descent module landed safely in Inner Mongolia, about 40 miles east of Khangi.

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There was some controversy with this mission. US STRATCOM reported that Shenzhou 7 passed 45 miles away from the International Space Station on flight day 3, at about 11am EDT on September 27, 2008. The orbital module had released a subsatellite four hours prior to the close fly-by.

While such a close fly-by was not explicitly illegal, the U.S. Department of Defense was wary because of the military aspects of CNSA's operations. They believe the subsatellite, BX-1, was an anti-sat experiment.

BX-1 would fly free for a few days, and eventually reattach to the orbital module after the crew left it in orbit, re-entering with it.

 

With some delays caused by Hurricane Helene, SpaceX Crew-9 is currently planned to launch tomorrow afternoon at 1:17pm EDT from Pad 40, Cape Canaveral.

It will be the second launch of first stage B1085.2, which launched a Starlink payload last month.

The next OneWeb flight by SpaceX will is planned for Monday morning at 2:49am EDT from Pad 4E, Vandenberg.

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Hera, the ESA follow-on to the Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART), is currently set to launch on Monday, October 7, at 10:52am from Pad 40, Cape Canaveral.

It will carry two cubesats which will do a bulk of the close-up work at asteroid 65803 Didymos and its moon, Dimorphos. The cruise will involve a fly-by of Mars in March, followed by arrival and orbital insertion at Didymos in December 2026.

ESA hopes to soft-land all three probes among the objects at the end of their mission.

The first stage for the mission is planned to be expended. The first stage has not yet been identified. Given what is known about the fleet, I'm suspecting it will be a not-so-nice day for B1069.19.

But we shall see.

 

The second Vulcan certification launch took place this morning

But not without a fairly serious issue.



During the first minute of flight, obvious burnthrough was taking place at the exhaust end of one of the GEM-63XL SRMs. Shortly after, its nozzle was completely burned off and fell away.

The attitude of the rocket was jarred markedly, but it appears the Blue Origin BE-4 main engines of the core stage were able to compensate.

Likely due to the small size of the payload, it was able to achieve orbit with only a few seconds extra on the core stage, and the Centaur V upper stage appears to have operated nominally.

Probably a good thing in hindsight that they didn't try to launch Dream Chaser on this mission.

We'll see how long it takes Northrop Grumman to figure out what went wrong.

 

And Florida is looking to be getting another hurricane.

Tropical Storm Morton has formed in the west side of the Gulf of Mexico, and is currently heading due East toward the southern Florida peninsula. Initial tracks have it going right through Tampa and Orlando, though modeling is pulling its track further south, potentially even curving south and going over the Yucatan peninsula first.

Regardless, it's starting to look unlikely that Europa Clipper will launch at the beginning of its window on Thursday. But its launch window is three weeks long, so there is still plenty of time to eat a delay.

Any delay would push back missions behind it. Currently, the only one set nearby is a Starlink launch planned for Friday morning. But it should not delay the launch of Hera tomorrow morning.

 

SpaceX was able to launch Hera this morning at 10:52am EDT, beating weather concerns unrelated to the approaching Hurricane Morton..

And it turns out, they shipped B1061.23 across the country from Vandenberg to Cape Canaveral to be expended for this launch. I guess they figured they could squeeze a few more launches out of B1069.18.

Currently serving Vandenberg are B1063.20, B1071.18, B1075.13, B1081.10, and B1082.6.

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Europa Clipper has officially been delayed to Saturday afternoon at 12:19pm EDT.

It is currently bracketed by two planned Starlink launches, but the one before will likely be delayed, as NASA wants a 48-hour embargo on launches from Cape Canaveral prior to the Europa Clipper launch.