Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

Stop being so butt hurt.

The guy has been in power for 30+ years.

Threat-smelling is an art form for guys who last that long

 

Yup, if you can't refute it with words, not even by made up ones about what I posted, you avoid the substantive response alltogether.
Just show your colors again.

 

]In the "Payback is a bitch and her stripper name is Karma" files

(from the FT)

 

Yes and no. There will always be another Nasrallah to step forward but they're in shitty shape right now. A limited land invasion of southern Lebanon may be next but IMO that's needlessly excessive. But we're talking Bibi here. Any drawn-out operation benefits him.

Side note - Biden claims he didn't get a heads up on the Nasrallah bombing. So if true, the client state is going a bit rogue ATM

 

If Iran backs off - which looks more and more likely by the minute - then Israel has definitely won the Second Lebanese War.

Iranian sources to Reuters:

Iran does not want to get directly involved in a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel.

Tehran was planning to send more missiles to Hezbollah before Nasrallah's assassination.

Western sources:

Hezbollah lost between 20 and 25 percent of its…

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 29, 2024

They can stand off and bomb the launchers to oblivion - which they're doing - followed by the rockets and missiles while targeting surviving commanders and their replacements until Hezbollah gives up or is so weakened that even Lebanon's political class can safely grow a pair and force them to.

What happens after is another story. Hezbollah's rockets and missiles were the mullahs' deterrent against Israel and its loss is a devastating blow. Tehran will regroup and reorganize but there isn't a lot of very good options available to them.

Not having nukes or a delivery mechanism is an obvious vulnerability and having no second-strike capability is a crippling one. A dash for warheads will be blindingly obvious to any intel service worth its salt and if nothing is done (which it won't) Israel will bomb the nuclear sites.

Israel doesn't really have the capacity to destroy them on its own and even if it did, a country like Iran can simply rebuild and go again but the damage will be severe and with Hezbollah gone, meaningful retaliation will be impossible. That can be endured once or twice but repeated bombings followed by zero or impotent retaliation is a recipe for revolution.

 

To be sure no-one starts to post Khamenei is my buddy:
I detest Khamenei as a human being, because he's a ruthless dictator with no respect for human lives, at least not of the ones that opposes him.
I detest Khamenei for being instrumental to female oppression, also with little regard to lives of them.
I detest him for being instrumental to death in Syria/Lebanon/Israel.
So I've no urge to worry about his safety, more the opposite of that.
However I'm not going to display my dislike of the guy by projecting childish formed "opinions/notions" like "he's scared" on him.
This simply comes from phantasies, not from reality.
My guess is most, if not all in here share my detest of Khamenei and like me wish him all that he has brought upon the innocent victims of his policies and believes.

 

Depends what you count as war.

Israel crossed the border in 1968 and 1973 and were actively involved in the civil war.

 

My guess is that these you mention were ment to change the landscape for the worse for the Palestinians refugees in Lebanon.
The Shia were no threat to Israel, but became victims of the religious wars supported by Israel.
I've no idea about the military power of Palestinians in Lebanon today, but one can tell with certainty that objective created another power that simply is unmatched in Lebanon. If I read it correct/estimations produced about that fascist christiam militia are correct, it's quite silly to expect a turn around in Lebanon. The money available to them is a couple of hundred thousands of dollars. That's the worth of two or three rockets of the shia militia.
So to mend things the idf can't just stirr religious hatred, they have to go in and do the fight themselves.
And no, Iran isnot going to join the fight against Israel.

 

We are racing towards the 3rd year of the Second Army of the World™ invading Ukraine and what an embarrassment that was. If it weren't for the destruction and death in Ukraine it would have been hilarious how pathetically weak Russia proved it was. I am like even sure that if Ukraine had different rail gauge those initial gains would have been halved.

Anyway Russia showed how pathetic they are and now we have these wannabe "I am a real army" fellas who brag about how powerful they are and how western countries should watch their step. Russia is 1000 times stronger than these idjits and NATO would still stomp them easily. Yes even NATO sans USA.

This is NATO sans USA airpower alone (if a conflict happens in 2030)

And lo and behold we have people like YOU who believe Nassralahs of the world. The effers lie about everything but no they are totally powerful.

And listen if you count every 122 mm rocket for Grads and Fateh 313 as equal and count 2 missiles then of course they have this amazing arsenal.You can easily count to 150k missiles that way

Even so Israel has many means of countering them. In order to be shot at Israel these weapons needs to get into position. First you can destroy them while in storage 2. then on the ground 3. then while on the move ... Israel already did all 3. Then once fired they can be destroyed by jets which Israel has plenty using air to air missile which again Israel has plenty. Israel also has other ground based and ship AA besides Iron Dome. This of course if Israel goes alone which we all know won't happen.

So no Mr "Sky is falling" Chicken Little, Hezbollah will not shoot 150k missiles at Israel. They lost some good thousands recently to begin with.

As for Iran, Iran has one weapon vs Israel: the ballistic missiles a threat they can use once. After that Israel can bomb whatever they want including Teheran.

Side note: that is why Iran is happy for Russia getting stuck in Ukraine. They can get some decent gear from Russia. And yes among the hardware Russia makes Su-34 and S-400 are very decent

Also this whole but Iran can hide & rebuild is a dream because Iran also has a civilian population and they will not accept their leaders sitting in bunkers

 

Oh dear, mr can't respond without lying or insulting is making things up again about what I post.
That seems to be a current MO for a bunch of you guys, make things up and attack me on your fantasies.
Gsus what a bunch of morons.

 

You have reading problems, most likely caused by blinders combined by a red haze clouding your vision and a high blood pressure.
I nowhere claim the USA avoids confrontation with hezbollah, but with Iran. This is the war with Iran thread.
the imbecility continues with the assertion it's me that has claims about rockets. I recite claims of 150,000 missiles from western military analysts, while i wonder how they reach those numbers and it's them who published the remarks about overwhelming the tron dome, not me.
I've no effing clue about it, so unlike you I'm not making things up myself. With my questionmark I put in doubt about it.
So your rant about those numbers is barking up the wrong tree, ally dog.

The effing funny thing is you attacked me when I doubted the reality of tunnels and trucks racing around with ballistic missiles as being lies and only propaganda.
Now you attack me with by you made up notions of me bigging up hezbollah, while I'm citing military analysts with question marks attached to it.
Boy oh boy, what a moron.
Rant, rant rant again and again

Try your rants on the people who are payed big bucks for their analyses. You missed out on a well paying gig. Your wasting your time and talents barking up my tree, especially as nothing your notching your blood pressure up about comes from me. Tell those analysts the israeli jets are going to shoot down their imaginary 150,000 missiles, no need for the iron dome at all.
But you can't help the urge to diarrhoea your invented shit about me.

Finally something on topic of the thread, but again you invent/make up something about me and attack me on your fantasies.
Show me ranting boy, where I posted that hiding issue.
Let me help you a bit, it wasnot me but your buddy The Irosh Rover, who posted that shit.
Boy, you really should stop smoking shit, your already incapacitated grey matter can't handle it and makes you mix up me with your buddies.
But it's good by this way to learn how you really think about what Irish Rover posts.

 

are we at war with Iran yet?

no?

 

Some in here seem to be itching it happens, even seem counting down to ignition.
The funny part is that the ones who really are at the buttons, don't. Apart from someone in Jerusalem.
He gets away with strikes on individuals, even with abnormal civilians life costs.
The wet dream of some ranting posters in here he can launch an attack on Iran without consequences dire to Israel can only come from those without kins in Israel itself.

 

The war is looking more likely, but I think we are still quite far off.

 

No, it's not.

 

How?
You can't have/win a war by shelling each other with rockets and drones. Israel can't invade Iran, as that would open the door for hezbollah to invade Israel and neither can Iran invade Israel.
Unless you think the USA is going to step over the treshold.
Israel's existence isnot at risk from any of the opponents in the region on their own.
These are a nuisance, some times a literaly bloody nuisance, but not an existential threat.
The only thing that can change that is a stupid move by Israel itself.

 

Well you pretty much covered it.
A major regional "hot" war is contingent upon US getting dragged in.
This is itself contingent upon Iran getting dragged in directly in Israel-Hezbollah war.

As I said in the other thread. I think Iran have chosen the path of so called strategic restraint, and will absorb many Israeli hits/blows.
Which is why it hasnt responded to the Haniyeh assassination and will probably not respond (at least not directly) to the assassination of Nasrallah, not to mention some IRGC commanders (well at least one) that were also present in that building that Israel flattened.
Those are some serious body blows and tactical successes by Israel, but they are not fatal.

But everything has a limit, as with everything else.
To the extent that it can, Iran and its allies want to drag this out in a prolonged war of attrition, because thats really the only option they have, given Israel/US massive military superiority.

This is my take anyway.

 

Europe's take will be interesting. 30 years ago it would have unquestionably backed Israel, today it's more difficult.

It's not just that the increasing Muslim population is having an impact (see the 4 seats British Labour lost to pro-Gaza candidates in June) but the general attitude towards Israel is a lot more skeptical.

At a late Boomer I was raised in an era where the British attitude towards Israel was a combination of guilt and admiration fueled by the mainstream media.

But it's difficult for the younger generations to understand why we condemn Assad for bombing civilians but turn a blind eye when Bibi does it.

 

1) Grow up
2) If you think you can dish it out, be prepared to take it back
3) @waitforit isn't my friend or buddy (though I wouldn't mind if he was). He just has some standards. You should try it some time

 

Softening up Hezbollah for land invasion of southern Lebanon. Maybe Bibi will give his patrons the head's up this time

 

You're likely correct, and it's very possible that Netanyahu's calculus involves pushing the mullahs into a corner and battering them until they lash out. The question is whether he has the support of Gallant and the IDF general staff in that and the consequences of their retreating into their corner for their axis.

If their axis starts to unravel quickly, the gains will be significant enough to make pushing them all the way to war too risky for rewards that are too little for that level of risk and too uncertain. As strategists keep saying, "wars are easily started but very hard to end."

Gallant is an ex chief of staff, so he'll be very keenly aware of that. Netanyahu is an actor/ TV talker so .. . .

 

I think Biden & the Pentagon appreciates that

 

It's being billed as an invasion but it doesn't look like one. From the Journal:

if there were to be a broader ground operation, it would feature “localized, limited raids against Hezbollah targets along the border with the objective of destroying the capabilities of the Radwan Forces,” the militant group’s special-operations unit. Israeli forces assess that the group is making preparations for an attack, as Hamas did before Oct. 7, including positioning clothes, weapons and other materials along the border.
The U.S. has urged Israel to seek a diplomatic solution and keep any ground operation targeted. It wasn’t immediately clear how long Israel would aim to hold territory, or whether an incursion would be more like a series of larger raids.
​

That said, the 1982 invasion wasn't supposed to go beyond the Litani and certainly not to Beirut

Hezbollah's clearly been deeply and thoroughly penetrated, so those raids may prove devastating to its infantry formations. In which case the benefits of staying and taking over the entire UNIFL territory for months at a time are pretty debatable.