Ukraine vs Russia III

It doesn't really matter what money you use, even pengő (which Hungary once printed in denominations of 100,000,000,000,000,000,000). It's still more than the GDP of the world.

 

Reportedly there are some elite unit troops there but not SOF per se and there's no more than 2,000 of them and probably less. They may be reasonably good. The rest are cannon fodder.

And with Russia taking an estimated 1,000 casualties per day, the entire contingent is good for about 2 weeks

 

I have one of those. It's in perfect condition too.

That's why it's worth about $50 as a collector's item, which is more than it was ever worth as money

 

It's Igor Susko.

That means it's not very accurate and probably garbage

 

But once it was, nothing could save the junta

 

I have the same opinion of him as you…but what do you think is garbage? The translation or you think that’s a staged actor. Cause that is a pretty realistic looking ********ed up human.

 

Maybe, but when I see a post from Susko I never even look at it on a "boy who cried wolf" basis.

If it's real, I'll see it soon enough from reliable sources. Otherwise, it'll disappear without trace.

 

Someone took this to a Korean subRedit and the subtitles were not very accurate but this does seem to be a genuine video. You can go here for a better translation:

https://www.reddit.com/r/korea/comments/1ggejh4/allegedly_a_video_from_a_north_korean_soldier_has/

 

I do not know whether the video is truthful but South Korean media treats it as real. I consider all the options on this video.

 

Depends on what you call a Russian citizen. My uncle and his family who live in Atlanta came here in 1994, just three years after us. They are still technically, Russian citizens (passport, pension and all), even though they are fully pro-Ukraine. And another thing, you are right, I do not know what a Russian citizen's opinion would be. In my circle, I do not inquire on whether people maintain Russian citizenship, unless they volunteer this information.

 

Russia lost a Su-34 fighter bomber along with the 2-man crew. It isn't clear why it crashed.

Last week they also lost another of their powerful radars (a 48Ya6 used to detect low flying aircraft, drones, and missiles to be targeted by S-300 / S-400 systems) to a drone attack. It was based in Crimea, and Russia claims it was left in place to await repairs.



Yeah, good luck with that.

 

The shoe of Russia's own version of Evergrande may be about to drop. Real estate developer Samolet Group is classified as a systemically important company in Russia.

Its bonds maturing in 2 years are nosediving, which is hardly surprising with interest rates at 21% and, with inflation (officially) at 27%, set to keep on rising. The government will have to step in.

 

Well, this war is going to be....different...next year

 

The Ukrainians aren't giving up.

 

France and UK strategic forces need to work together now, and be ready to offer their nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe.

 

No, but they won't have the support to resist conventionally.

Guerilla warfare is inevitable.

 

Macron wants to but is a lame duck. Starmer is an office manager and as for Scholz . . .

 

Yep. That's the issue. Donald Tusk should take the initiative then. I hope him, Sholtz, Macron and Starmer meet very soon.

 

Remember how Biden went to Germany a few weeks back to meet the trio. He specifically wanted Tusk there, Macron was keen and Starmer, didn't mind. Scholz vetoed it.

Scholz's coalition is teetering and it may fall. That's not really great news, because Scholz will go with it and the SPD will elect a new leader. Schroeder and his allies are on manouevres and there'll be an even more Putin-compliant leader installed

 

I know. Nothing to be optimistic about. A form a European strategic deterrence will need to be done soon though. Donald Tusk has already expressed his interest in Macron's proposal to make France's nuclear capabilities & potential available to Europe as part of a plan. A France/Poland agreement would be a start. Macron wouldn't need a vote of the parliament to achieve that - it's French President "reserved domain".

 

Back to Russia's slow disintegration.

They had another OFZ bond auction today. They failed to place any of the variable rate bonds and only placed 4.9 billion rubles of the fixed rate bonds. They need to sell multiple trillions to balance the budget, so this does nothing.

I want to give a brief and oversimplified explanation and tie it into Yoshou's post about how the Russian bond trading market is dropping to record lows. When Russia has a new bond to sell, they don't sell at face value. They sell at a discount and the bank then resells it to investors at the face value. That discount is determined by an auction - banks bid on the price. If no bank bids high enough for Russia, Russia just drops the auction and no bonds are placed. Because the whole market for bonds is so low now, banks are not willing to bid high for these bonds. And Russia is desperate to sell. But they still have to pay the face value interest, so if the bids are too low they won't actually get any money (and that seems to be happening with the variable rate and even some of the fixed rate bonds they have sold).

 

A Ukrainian sea drone struck a Russian port today. Nothing too much of note, except that this hit a port in Kaspiysk, Dagestan, which is on the Caspian Sea, not the Black Sea. Over 1000km from the front lines.

 

Were they targeting ships, or something else at the port?