Injuries aside, was Peak Neymar better than any non-Messi player this era?

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by lessthanjake, Mar 13, 2023.

  1. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    That's not evidence, that is your inference :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
    We are talking about a world-class team with world-class midfielders and wingers. Messi plays deep because he is a forward who does not play shoulder-to-shoulder with CBs and cannot play back to goal. His playstyle is reliant on receiving ball at his feet with body position toward the net. I thought you actually knew the player?
    The reality is Messi for a long time has been playing deeper than a classic 9, because it is HIS most effective position. Can you imagine a lone Messi stranded up top next to two 6'2 CBs? Give me a goddamn break. So disingenuous.
     
  2. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    That is not what is meant by representative sample size. It is implied that the chosen subset is suficient in representing a larger set of interest.

    Larger set of interest would be Neymar's finishing ability in every possible scenario. How good of a finisher he is..

    So the question of representative sample size comes down to if this sample is encompassing situations and scenarios that can be scaled up and seen as the same as that bigger set.
     
  3. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    No, I am taking issue with you calling that "Statistical randomness". You are dodging.
    Neymar performing well in the 8 (consecutive) games he played without Messi is NOT statistical randomness.
    Even if the true population is defined as the cumulative amount of shots he took in his career, it is STILL NOT STATISTICAL RANDOMNESS, but a "subgroup" or "nonrepresentative sample".
    Walk away from this with dignity, and more knowledge. You're otherwise drowning.
     
  4. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
     
  5. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    We are discussing "statistical RANDOMNESS" which is what the other poster claimed. At no point did we discuss whether this is a "representative sample" which are terms I introduced in my explanation.
     
  6. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    What does this video prove? This does not disprove anything I said, nor support anything you said. 2015 is obviously an extraordinary player and an all-time dribbler.
     
  7. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    [​IMG]
    Messi was farther from the net from 2004 to 2013 than he was in 2014-16.
    The difference in the Pep years is he could drive the penalty box and receive the ball there, and he lost a degree of incisiveness over time.
     
  8. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    #458 lessthanjake, Sep 5, 2023
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2023
    LOL at the idea that 40 shots is a statistically meaningful sample size. Like, even if you think it’s not a representative sample (which is a dubious claim that you have provided no evidence for, as there’s no provided evidence that his chances were meaningfully different, only pure speculation), the statistical randomness from the sample being just 40 shots is obviously enormous. You’re just intellectually wedded here to the idea that how someone played in an 8-game span is not at all random, which is plainly silly. I don’t think any reasonable person with a baseline understanding of basic statistics (or even just of football) would agree with you.
     
  9. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    Jesus. Talk about being tone deaf. Please provide a link supporting the use of the term "statistical randomness" in an equivalent data sample / scenario.
    I am getting second hand embarassment for you - seriously. Data derived from the 8 consecutive matches Neymar played without Messi ... is NOT RANDOM. Under NO circumstances, is it RANDOM. There is no mathematical BASIS for the term you are using. Football is NOT a card game. It is NOT a dice game. 40 shots in 8 consecutive games is NOT the equivalent of throwing a dice. THERE IS NO BASIS for YOUR USE of THOSE TERMS. 40 SHOTS is the ENTIRE POPULATION of shots Neymar took in that 8 consecutive span of matches.
     
  10. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    "statistical randomness from the sample being just 40 shots is obviously enormous"

    Dude. You CANNOT be saying these things. I cannot fathom how an individual can be so wrong. I am so embarrassed for you.
     
  11. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    I commented on your explaination.

    There is nothing dubious with the word statistical randomness. In a small sample size there is a greater degree of uncertainty.

    You latch on to straws of uncertainty to make a claim.

    If I go outside and shot 10 three pointers to the hoop and by some miracle make 5 of those. Can i retire and claim I am a better three point shooter than Steph Curry with 50% from the three?

    10 three pointers are a sample size of a great uncertainty and nothing can be concluded based on that. And if that actually happens, which is unlikely but feasible, that is true, "representitive" sample size but it still would be random in a sense that with 10 shots anything can happen.

    I am not a 50% shoter from a three point line and if I continued shoting my success rate would converge towards my true skill level, which is definitely not 50%
     
    lessthanjake repped this.
  12. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    You are not describing statistical randomness. Again, saying that the 8 matches Neymar played is NOT a representative sample of his career shooting is TRUE. Saying those 8 matches are "statistical randomness" is a NON-MATHEMATICAL TERM and FALSE.
     
  13. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    You’re going around in circles. As I’ve explained, those matches are plainly not the “entire population” by the very terms of the discussion (which is centered on whether those games involved abnormally good finishing for Neymar compared to his general finishing). After I pointed that out, you moved away from that to an argument about it being an unrepresentative sample. After I pointed out that you provided absolutely zero evidence whatsoever about that besides your own baseless speculation, you’re now back to saying 8 matches is the full sample here. And along the way you’re getting more and more aggressive and insulting. You are either mentally incapable of accepting when you’re wrong, or are mentally incapable of admitting it to others. I don’t really wish to keep going around and around in circles with you, playing whack-a-mole on an endless cycle of dumb arguments while you mask your inability to admit you’re wrong with an escalating array of insulting language. This is a tangential point that doesn’t really matter much, and you are wrong about it. That’s really all there is to it, and you can respond to this with some personally attacking post that hollowly declares victory in order to try to save face I suppose, but that’s the reality of where we’re at.
     
  14. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    Buddy, your post will live in infamy for stating that the 8 match-consecutive sample is "statistical randomness". You can write essays, and paragraphs. But you have said something that is PATENTLY FALSE, and represents non-mathematical rubbish language.

    These are the words you typed:
    ""statistical randomness from the sample being just 40 shots is obviously enormous""
    This is no basis in statistics for this statement. This is a fact, and you are unable to understand that betrays that you simply have not managed to understand these concepts on a very fundamental level.

    edit:
    there is no insulting language in my post. you can cry about imaginary strawmen as is your forte.
     
  15. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    LOL. As I said, you can hollowly declare victory if you want. It’s the only play you’ve got, so I knew you’d have to use it.

    Speaking of which, by the way, I’m still hoping to hear from you regarding what my alleged error was regarding Modric being subbed (see this thread: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/d...er-of-all-time.2114820/page-113#post-41681798). Please go to that thread and let me know.
     
  16. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    Like I said, I gave you many outs:
    1. The first was to actually provide a definition of the elusive term "statistical randomness". Just explain the term - forget about tying it to the discussion at hand. All I asked was an operating definition you see...
    2. Withdraw the term "statistical randomness" and simply focus on the mathematical concept of "Randomness" - but somehow tie that in to the 8 game sample - and explain why real-world events of shooting in football is mathematically "random" (hint: it isn't).
    3. Provide backing to the statement: ""statistical randomness from the sample being just 40 shots is obviously enormous"" This a sentence that to me is on mathematical grounds illogical. I need to understand what "obviously enormous means" mathematically. Did you calculate the power of a 40 shot sample? I'm struggling to even formulate rational questions, because the sentence itself is nonsensical...

    Lastly, you are mistaken if you think I am interested in "victory". I am interested in truth. In so far as you are concerned, you are meaningless to me, and anything you might misconstrue as a "victory" (I'm assuming demonstrating you being wrong constitutes "victory"?) is therefore completely meaningless to me.
     
  17. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    #467 lessthanjake, Sep 5, 2023
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2023
    Again, this is sophistry that you are doing to save face. And even your own face-saving involves you basically admitting that your entire argument here revolves around an objection to the term “statistical” in “statistical randomness.” This is a semantic objection, not a substantive one. It’s a dumb semantic objection as I’ve already explained, but that also doesn’t matter and is a waste of time to go around and around with you about, because it holds zero substantive importance. It is substantively correct that someone’s xG overperformance over 40 shots is very random because that is not many shots, and that someone overperforming xG over 40 shots by way more than they normally do is not a situation that is likely to continue over a greater number of shots. Are you even objecting to that, or are you just trying to engage in aimless pedantry about the term “statistical randomness” in order to avoid the actual substantive issue?

    As far as I can tell, your argument is that there would be no regression to the mean in a larger sample without Messi because Messi not being there magically made Neymar get better chances and Neymar is magically able to outdo xG more with these “better” chances than on the chances he gets with Messi. The evidence you’ve provided for all of that is…non-existent. It’s just pure speculation. You have provided zero evidence that Neymar got “better chances” in those games without Messi, and you have provided zero evidence that Neymar is able to outdo xG more with better chances than with harder ones. It’s an argument built on nothing but rampant speculation that you’ve come up with in order to justify the conclusion you want to come to (which is predictably and anti-Messi conclusion). Just complete nonsense. I’ve pointed this out multiple times now, and you just keep engaging in useless and uninformed pedantry.

    Also, LOL at someone saying they’re “only interested in truth” when they’re the same person who has continuously insisted that Zidane dribbled more than Messi, even after having it exhaustively explained that the purported statistical evidence for that absurd conclusion meant something completely different and even after being confronted with his own prior acknowledgment of that fact. The same person who vaguely insisted that a mistake was made regarding Modric’s record of being subbed, but continuously refuses to reveal what purported mistake was made despite being repeatedly begged to do so.

    _____________

    Just to illustrate the underlying substantive point a bit, I took a look at Erling Haaland last EPL season. In his first 40 shots, he scored 15 goals in 8.5 xG. In his last 40 shots, he scored 10 goals on 10.4 xG. Overall, he scored 36 goals on 28.4 xG. Both of those 40-shot samples were nowhere near the larger sample. You’ll find that this sort of thing is very common, because 40 shots is very few shots.
     
    Gregoire1 repped this.
  18. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    I demand proof of your claimed background / expertise in statistics, because nothing you provided is "randomness". You are waffling. I am not quoting the rest of your essay, because I skimmed and saw the words "sophistry" and "semantics". No, we are talking statistics.

    I have asked you to provide a definition of statistical randomness or how a sample of 40 consecutive shots is "random". You manage to write essays, and yet this minimal requirement is something you cannot achieve.

    Hint: You won't because you made things up.

    edit:
    Unless, you can explain how a consecutive sample of 40 shots is "random" - by explain I mean mathematically or with reference to a resource, or provide a definition of "statistical randomness" such that we can understand what that even means in the context, I will abstain from a completely fruitless discussion that should not even have occurred had you completed basic prerequisite classes on sampling.
     
  19. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Read my post and get back to me, bud.
     
  20. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    See my edit:

    Unless, you can explain how a consecutive sample of 40 shots is "random" - by explain I mean mathematically or with reference to a resource, or provide a definition of "statistical randomness" such that we can understand what that even means in the context, I will abstain from a completely fruitless discussion that should not even have occurred had you completed basic prerequisite classes on sampling.

    I hope this is a lesson to you not to delve into objective mathematical topics you do not understand.
     
  21. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    My god, you have to be trolling. If you want me to teach you statistics, please pick up a statistics textbook. I’m not going to teach you basic concepts while you sit around and vaguely claim I’m wrong. And I’m definitely not going to do so when your whole point is just complete pedantry that is clearly being done to avoid addressing the substantive point.
     
  22. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
    Your evasiveness betrays you.
    I rest my case.

    In the words of Mourinho, you are exposed and "I have nothing to say"
     
  23. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    #473 lessthanjake, Sep 5, 2023
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2023
    No, it doesn’t betray anything. I don’t need to take my time giving a bad faith actor a statistics lesson. You’re arguing a pedantic point to avoid addressing the substantive issue. I’ve pointed that out to you, and yet you keep doing it, which actually does betray that you have no substantive argument. I’ve explained the point I’m making and answered your questions, the point I’ve made is obvious to anyone with even a baseline level of knowledge of statistics and sampling error, and you are just sitting around bleating about how you think I’m wrong about a semantic point while not only providing nothing substantively but not even saying virtually anything about your own pedantic/semantic point except that you think I’m wrong. And when you did briefly try to do so, it was to claim that the relevant full sample is actually the 8 games in question, which is plainly incorrect here by the very terms of the discussion, and then when I pointed that out you started instead vaguely talking about it being an unrepresentative sample specifically because Messi was out and when I pointed out that that point rests entirely on completely baseless speculation, you stopped saying anything new. You are making a point that doesn’t matter and even then refusing to actually really say anything except that you think I’m wrong and demanding that I say more despite you providing nothing. It’s just bad faith trolling, and at some point one has to refuse to jump down silly rabbit holes with a bad faith actor.
     
  24. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    I asked you to back up the (non-mathematical) statement that a consecutive 40 shot sample is statistical randomness. I did so because it's a statement that makes no sense no matter how you look at it.

    You've written several essays. Literal mountains of text. And have yet to explain to this community what that is. Or what statistical randomness is point blank.
    The only bad faith is yours man, I hope you understand that.

    Should you wish to be honest with readers, you can clearly define what that means, and then we can resume discussing it.

    The request for clarification is simple, clear, and reasonable. So far you have done nothing but dodge and use terms like "trolling".

    Make no mistake. People here are intelligent and educated. You are exposed and we all see through you.
     
  25. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    #475 lessthanjake, Sep 5, 2023
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2023
    In all your posts on this, you’ve said nothing substantively at all. It’s just bad-faith trolling. The reality is that there’s large random sampling error in taking a 40-shot sample. The people here are intelligent and educated, and I’m quite confident that they can therefore understand that basic concept and see that I am correct about this. And I suspect you can too, which is why you’re just refusing to actually say anything.
     

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