World Cup 2018 Prediction Contest [R]

Discussion in 'World Cup 2018 - Russia' started by EvanJ, Dec 10, 2017.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I used a website with simulations to get a probability of each country being eliminated in each round and winning the World Cup. Then I took the reciprocal of each probability to make points where predicting less likely outcomes are worth more points. For Morocco, the team most likely to be eliminated in the Group Stage (according to simulations, not me), you get 1.18 for correctly predicting that they were eliminated in the Group Stage. For Tunisia, the least likely to win the World Cup, you get 2,777.78 points for correctly predicting them winning the World Cup. For Brazil, the team who is most likely to reach every round and win the World Cup, you get 12.61 points for correctly predicting them to be eliminated in the Group Stage and 4.12 points for correctly predicting them to win the World Cup. Each person will start the World Cup with a different potential score depending on how likely your picks were. I attached a screen shot of a spreadsheet saying how many points every correct prediction would be worth. I hope people will participate.

    @Paul Calixte

    Can you sticky this topic?
     

    Attached Files:

    Iranian Monitor and jagum repped this.
  2. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    How can you increase the font for reading your spreadsheet?
     
  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here's Brazil in table form. At some point I'll type every team that way. Note that R16 means being eliminated in the Round of 16, not reaching the Round of 16 or later, and the same goes for every round.


    Team
    Group StageR16QFSFSECONDFIRST
    Brazil12.615.446.944.208.944.12
     
  4. jagum

    jagum Member

    Montreal Impact
    Venezuela
    Jun 20, 2007
    Panama City, Panama
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Venezuela
    I´m in . let us know when we start
     
  5. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #5 EvanJ, Dec 14, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2017
    Here's the table. It lists how many points you get for predicting the team would be eliminated in that round.


    Team
    Group StageR16QFSFSECONDFIRST
    Brazil12.615.446.944.208.944.12
    Germany11.933.158.964.777.696.78
    Belgium5.753.692.5810.0027.4732.20
    England5.414.042.569.5726.4629.49
    Argentina5.362.534.5012.2315.7419.79
    France4.644.553.577.9614.2011.29
    Uruguay4.382.535.739.0819.6124.11
    Portugal3.913.966.197.349.6911.05
    Spain3.624.346.717.349.729.48
    Russia3.252.406.8312.9430.7551.60
    Colombia2.932.814.8017.3245.8770.22
    Poland2.492.665.9826.6282.30160.77
    Peru2.044.805.4316.4230.0742.61
    Croatia1.993.019.3531.0859.9994.70
    Denmark1.954.655.7818.2236.8954.29
    Switzerland1.883.7612.4412.8735.7562.34
    Mexico1.753.1420.9724.0872.99124.07
    Japan1.703.4110.4062.66207.04602.41
    Iceland1.653.6012.6746.02101.83176.88
    Sweden1.643.3424.0029.0196.99178.57
    Iran1.624.9011.5319.7339.6470.77
    Serbia1.574.3515.8120.8974.29144.93
    Senegal1.504.2712.8071.17263.85671.14
    Egypt1.474.2917.8745.27140.65378.79
    Nigeria1.424.3720.4093.55247.52529.10
    Korea Republic1.364.6440.5760.39226.24584.80
    Costa Rica1.335.9124.6634.89128.21280.90
    Australia1.288.1214.6661.80152.91341.30
    Saudi Arabia1.275.9430.00100.60342.471351.35
    Panama1.248.5015.30113.38561.801886.79
    Tunisia1.209.5019.23163.40990.102777.78
    Morocco1.189.9733.2471.58210.08500.00


    I'm not going to require everybody's predictions to be possible. If you want to predict 20 teams to get eliminated in the Round of 16, you can, but you would be guaranteed to be wrong for 4 teams. It is not necessary to state what group each team is in and/or what place you predict them to finish in.

    I don't know what the best format is for people to make predictions. I will accept all of these:

    1. Each team and the points so I can tell what round that came from.
    2. Each team with GS or Group Stage, Round of 16 or R16, etc.
    3. Each team with 1 for the Group Stage, 2 for Round of 16, to 6 for the winner.
    4. Each round and listing the teams you predict to be eliminated then.

    All predictions must be made at least one hour before the first game of the World Cup.
     
  6. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    I think the simulations are interesting but I am not sure I fully understand them nor if they are the best system to award points in a prediction contest. Why not have the following simple rules for the predictions contest instead:

    1- Predict the right outcome (win/draw/loss) in each match at the group stage and get 1 point.

    2- Predict the right order of finish for each team in each group and get 1 points for each team you correctly place in the right position in their group table, plus points for any divergence between the actual finish and the pot level a team has been placed. Meaning that if a team in pot 4 finishes 1st in the group and you correctly predicted it, you would get 3 additional points (4-1). If a team in pot 1 finishes 1st in the group and you predict it, you would get 0 additional points (1-1) but you would still get of course your 1 point. If a team in pot 2 finishes 4th in the group, and you predicted, you would get (4-2) 2 additional points, etc

    3- I suppose you can then also your simulation table to give additional points as well, although I am not sure about how that would work.

    I should mention there are 48 group stage matches so someone can get up to 48 points in the system I propose for correctly predicting the outcome in each of them. There are 8 groups/32 teams and correctly predicting the order of finish in each group would give up to 32 points plus bonus points based on whether the teams correctly predicted to finish in the position they finished where ranked to finish above or below their actual finish. And if you are throw in your simulations, I suppose that would also weigh the points in a manner that would take into account the difficulty level in each group based on your simulated results.
     
    jagum repped this.
  7. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'll give an example of how the simulations become points with 100 simulations:

    Group Stage: 35 (100/35 = 2.86 points)
    Round of 16: 30 (100/30 = 3.33 points)
    Quarterfinals: 20 (100/20 = 5.00 points)
    Semifinals: 10 (100/10 = 10.00 points)
    Lose Final: 4 (100/4 = 25.00 points)
    Win Final: 1 (100/1 = 100.00 points)

    I rounded everything to two decimal places. I'm not saying the simulations are perfect, but I don't know how many sites have something that can be used to give a probability for every team being eliminated in every round. I don't want to do a prediction contest that only includes the Group Stage. If you would like to make a separate contest, you can.

    Using these value provides a reason to predict an outcome you don't think will be happen because it will be worth a lot of points if you predict it to happen and you're right. This is true in the real world. If the goal was to predict the outcome of each game, people would predict Barcelona and Real Madrid to win almost every La Liga game. When correct bets on less likely outcomes are rewarded more than correct bets on more likely outcomes, there is a reason to bet on worse teams.
     
  8. nicklaino

    nicklaino Member+

    Feb 14, 2012
    Brooklyn, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Is there a group of death in this WC?
     
  9. lufcinsfo

    lufcinsfo Member

    leeds united
    Republic of Ireland
    Dec 12, 2017
    USA
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    The simulations throw up some interesting numbers. Compare, for example, Iran and Mexico. According to the simulations, Iran is more likely to be eliminated in the first round (61.7% vs 57.1%) but also more likely to win the Final (1.4% vs 0.8%). This is because if Mexico qualifies for R16, it would most likely be in 2nd place (after Germany) and then they would most likely face Brazil so their odds of making it to the QF are only 10.1%, whereas Iran would have a much easier 2nd round game and thus has a 17.9% chance of reaching the QF.

    I like your odds as the basis for a contest but have some suggestions for how to score it:
    1) suppose I pick Mexico to reach the Final but they get knocked out in the semi-final. I should still get a lot of credit for picking Mexico to advance that far. Using your numbers, I should get 1.75 + 3.14 + 20.97 + 24.08 = 49.94 points. If I pick Mexico to get knocked out in R16, but they reach the Final, I only get 1.75 + 3.14 = 4.89 points.
    2) To ensure that I don't pick every team to win in order to maximize points, the system has to ensure that I pick 16 first round teams, 8 R16 teams 4 QF teams, 2 SF teams, 1 F(finalist) and 1 W(inner). This can easily be done fairly easily, I think.
    3) the teams should be listed in group order (i.e. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uruguay, Portugal, Spain, etc). This will make it easier for people to ensure they pick two round 1 losers in each group
     
  10. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For Point 1, the way I intended it was that you only get points for a team if you are exactly right. If I want to give points for each round a person is correct about a team, I might totally redo the points table. Luckily, I have plenty of time.
     
  11. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I thought about having people make predictions for the two teams that will advance from each out of six possible combinations. I have simulations that provide probabilities for each team. The problem is that probability of a pair of teams advancing is not the product of the two teams' probabilities of advancing because the teams are not independent events. For example, knowing that Mexico advanced makes it less likely that other teams in their group advanced. Now I'm thinking about having people rank the teams in each group with a point system that does not depend on simulations. I'll give 2 points for each team in the correct position and 1 point for being 1 position off and being correct about if the team advanced.
     
  12. Vishal Anand

    Vishal Anand New Member

    Manchester United
    Canada
    Mar 8, 2018
     
  13. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    #13 Iranian Monitor, Mar 8, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
    IMO, besides the points for correctly predicting the order of teams, divide the teams in each group in 3 categories, giving each category a different color. Teams whose probability of advancing is greater than 50% based on betting odds. Teams whose probability of advancing is between 30-50%. And teams whose probability of advancing is less than 30%. Then give 1 extra bonus point for correctly picking a team to advance whose probability is between 30-50% and 2 extra bonus points for correctly picking a team to advance whose probability is less than 30%.

    For instance, in group B, both Spain and Portugal have better than 50% odds to advance. Both Iran and Morocco have less than 30% odds to advance. Lets imagine someone predicts the following:

    1- Spain
    2- Iran
    3- Portugal
    4- Morocco

    Lets imagine the actual standings are:

    1- Spain
    2- Iran
    3- Morocco
    4- Portugal

    In this hypothetical, I would give 1 point for correctly picking Spain advancing and 1 point for correctly predicting that Spain would finish on top (2 pts). I would give the same for Iran (2pt) plus 2 bonus points because Iran's probability of advancing is less than 30%. The total points earned would be: 6.

    Imagine another person had predicted:
    1- Spain
    2- Portugal
    3- Morocco
    4- Iran

    In the same hypothetical standings, this person would get 2 pts for correctly picking Spain to advance and the right order for Spain, 1 point for correctly Morocco's standing, but no other points.
     
  14. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My original plan used probabilities to make ratios. Now I'm thinking about awarding points for correct predictions for each percent chance of that team not doing what they did. Here's Group A:

    Uruguay: 77.184% chance at advancing and 22.816% chance at being eliminated
    Russia: 69.201% chance at advancing and 30.799% chance at being eliminated
    Egypt: 32.094% chance at advancing and 67.906% chance at being eliminated
    Saudi Arabia: 21.521% chance at advancing and 78.479% chance at being eliminated

    If Uruguay and Russia advance and that is what you predicted, you would get 22.816 + 30.799 + 32.094 + 21.521 = 107.230. In the unlikely event that Egypt and Saudi Arabia advance and that is what you predicted, you would get 77.184 + 69.201 + 67.906 + 78.479 = 292.770. The sum of the points for correctly predicting two opposite pairs of teams to advance will always be 400. If Uruguay and Russia advance and you predicted Uruguay and Egypt to advance, you would get 22.816 + 0 + 0 + 21.521 = 44.337. Group G has the highest combined probability of advancing for its top two teams, so it will have values farthest apart. Correctly predicting Belgium and England would be worth 71.766, and correcting predicting Panama and Tunisia would be worth 328.234.

    I could use ELO rating differences to get probabilities for each Knockout Round game and have people predict one game at a time rather than outcomes for every team before the World Cup. Each team will have enough days off between games for fans to watch the game a day or two later and make a prediction here before the next game. I would have to decide how to weight the Group Stage and Knockout Round component.
     
  15. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm going to do what I proposed in my previous post about your score being the probability of your prediction being wrong. If you are wrong about if a team advances, you get 0 for that team. If you are correct about if a team advances and are one spot off on the rankings (first and second switched or third and fourth switched), your score is the probability of your prediction being wrong. If you are correct about a team's position, you get double what you would get from being one spot off. If Person X has the teams in the correct order and Person Y has first and second switched and third and fourth switched, Person X will get double Person Y for that group.
     
    jagum repped this.
  16. Vialli-Toto

    Vialli-Toto BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Milan
    Italy
    Mar 26, 2018
    France will win the world cup.


    Close thread.
     
  17. HIIBEE

    HIIBEE New Member

    Rangers
    Scotland
    Apr 16, 2018
    Nearest would be Group A or Group D
     
  18. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm thinking about e-mailing people an Excel file and instructions to enter their predictions in it and e-mail it back to me. That way I don't have to type tables here.
     
  19. Show Business

    Show Business Red Card

    Borussia Dortmund
    May 2, 2018
    In deep south
    Imagine that are really:

    1.Portugal
    2.Marocco
    3.Iran
    4.Spain

    Imagine that I expects:

    1.Iran
    2.Portugal
    3.Spain
    4.Marocco
     
  20. nh.entertainment

    nh.entertainment New Member

    Fiorentina
    Netherlands
    May 4, 2018
  21. HIIBEE

    HIIBEE New Member

    Rangers
    Scotland
    Apr 16, 2018
    That was a 5 minutes of your life you will never get back writing that tosh :)
     
  22. chill-it

    chill-it New Member

    Jan 13, 2010
    London
    Club:
    Ipswich Town FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
  23. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Rather than working with probabilities and values that aren't whole numbers, I made a simple format that only includes the Group Stage. Predict the position and points for each team. You do not have to give predictions for each game. You do not have to give scores, but if you predict two or more teams to be tied on points you must specify the tiebreaker order. Goal differential is the first tiebreaker. I will evaluate positions and points off:

    Positions: 40%
    For each team, you will get 2 points if you were correct about that team's position and 1 point if you were one spot off and correct about whether the team would advance or not. To convert to scores to something out of 40, everybody's score will be multiplied by X (which can be less than 1) so the best person gets a 40 and everybody else gets proportionately less. If you have 60% as many points as the best person, you get 60% of 40, which is 24.

    Points Off: 60%
    I will do each group separately, and the groups are 7.5% each. I will add up the sum of how many points you were off in each team in the standings. Being X points too high and X points too low are the same. To convert to scores to something out of 7.5 for each group, everybody's score will be multiplied by X (which can be less than 1) so the best person gets a 7.5 and everybody else gets proportionately less. This score is something you want to be low. The best person will get 7.5 and the worst person will get 0, with everybody else's score distributed proportionately in between.

    Here are the teams in each group:

    A: Russia, Uruguay, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia
    B: Portugal, Spain, IR Iran, and Morocco
    C: France, Peru, Denmark, and Australia
    D: Argentina, Croatia, Iceland, and Nigeria
    E: Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, and Costa Rica
    F: Germany, Mexico, Sweden, and Korea Republic
    G: Belgium, England, Panama, and Tunisia
    H: Colombia, Poland, Senegal, and Japan
     
  24. White/Blue_since1860

    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
  25. locoxriver

    locoxriver Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 22, 2005
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    CA River Plate
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Call me biased, but I don’t think Belgium has more chances than Argentina.

    To say Belgium has more chances of progressing further in the tournament than Argentina might be correct (yet still debatable), but Argentina’s chances of winning the title itself are much higher simply off of the Messi factor alone.
     
    Christina99 repped this.

Share This Page